Posts In February, 2011
Unit 4; ch 14-16
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Monday February 28, 2011

1. Skill 16.4: Wrap-up: Expected Value Investigation - Sum and Difference of Two Dice
  • Summary Stats on Board
  • Formula for Standard Deviation
  • Not taking the square root = variance
  • When adding OR subtracting INDEPENDENT random variables
2. Skill 17.3: Binomial Probability Distribution
  1. True/False
  2. Odd/Even
3. Skill 17.2: Geometric Probability Distribution
  1. Rolls Until Doubles
4. Unit IV Project Details
  1. Anyone want to use the Academy Awards for their project?


Friday February 25, 2011

Make sure you complete these 3 items
1. Reassessment
2. Probability Check-In - for those that need to complete it
3. Expected Value Investigation - Sum and Difference of Two Dice

Once you have completed the 3 items above, then it's your option below...
4. Choose a Wiki Page and make it awesome
5. Unit IV Project Creation


Thursday February 24, 2011

Data Collection (for use in Unit V):Sampling Distributions
18.1: Understand and interpret sampling distributions of means and proportions

1. Collect data on CEO salaries from the 2009 CEO Pay Database
  • "Randomly" sample CEOs and calculate the average salary
    • Assume there are about 350 companies listed per letter of the alphabet
  • As randomly as possible select samples of the sizes listed below
  • Get at least 2 samples of each size
    • Sample of size 2
    • Sample of size 5
    • Sample of size 10
    • Sample of size 26 (One company from each letter of the alphabet)
  • Compile responses via CEO Salary Form
  • On Board: Values that are possible/not possible for each sample size
  • Display each distribution in Fathom
    • Observations about each distribution: shape, center, spread
2. Complete the Reassessment Form if you plan on reassessing tomorrow.


Wednesday February 23, 2011


16.3: Know how to determine the new mean and standard deviation after adding a constant or multiplying by a constant
16.4: Know how to determine the new mean and standard deviation after adding/subtracting two(or more) independent random variables
1. Dart Lab

3. If you want to reassess on Friday: Reassessment Form

Tuesday February 22, 2011

16.2: Know how to find the mean(expected value) and the variance of a random variable

1. Dart Lab
  • Working with group to answer questions on Dart Lab
  • Round Probabilities to the nearest tenth
  • Will conduct simulations tomorrow
2. Probability Check-In - Group #10
3. Class schedule
  • 9:59 1st
  • 10:33 2nd
  • 11:07 3rd


Friday February 18, 2011

1. Reassessment for those Reassessing
2. EVERYONE: Complete this today: Probability Check-In
3. Learn some more about Expected Value - Expected Value Applet
4. Create a probability distribution and calculate E(X), SD(X) <standard deviation> for the lottery ticket
5. Project Development- Unit IV Project
  1. Plan your Unit IV project
  2. Have some conversations about doing a Stat Project - with each other, with Mr. C
  3. Explore some of these tools
    1. Animoto
    2. Prezi.com (great alternative to a slideshow)
    3. Magnoto
    4. Xtranormal(if you can type you can create a cartoon!)
    5. Smilebox






Thursday February 17, 2011

Complete Reassessment Form if you plan on reassessing tomorrow
...define Expected Value and SD(X) using yesterday's activity
  • Using Excel
  • Finding in graphing calculator
Jackpot = $101,000,000
Create a probability distribution and calculate E(X), SD(X) <standard deviation> for the lottery ticket
  • Using Excel or Graphing Calculator
  • Interpret what they mean in context

Wednesday February 16, 2011

*Starting Dartboard Project*
Skill 16.1: Probability models for a discrete random variable
Skill 16.2: Find the mean and variance of a random variable
Sheets of Paper - Expected Value
1. Access your data on sheets of paper received each day
  • Use a partner's if you do not have any data...even though you should
  • Complete Reassessment Form if you plan on reassessing on Friday
2. Create a probability model for # of sheets of paper - shown on board
  • Choose any one class
  • Round probability to the nearest hundredth
3. Simulating # of sheets of paper received on a given day - Microsoft Excel
  • Assign outcomes based on probabilities (1-100)
  • Look-up a random number to simulate a random outcome
    • VLOOKUP(RANDBETWEEN(1,100), CELLS YOU'RE LOOKING IN, VALUE YOU WANT)



  • Repeat
  • Calculate the average as we move along
    • AVERAGE(CELL TO THE LEFT AND ALL CELLS ABOVE)



4. Using the formula for E(X) - Formula Sheet


Tuesday February 15, 2011

Ch. 14 & 15 Practice


Monday February 14, 2011

Chatting Students
Skill 14.5
Suppose at any given time in an AP Stat class there are 2, 3, or 4 or more students talking. 70% of the time there are 2 students talking, 20% of the time there are 3 students talking, with the remaining time being conversations of 4 or more students. If there are two students talking, there is an 80% chance that their conversation is actually about Statistics. If there are three students talking, there is a 65% chance that the conversation is about Statistics. If there are 4 or more students talking, there is a 35% chance that the conversation is about Statistics. If you hear from the hallway a conversation between students about statistics, what is the likelihood that there are 3 students involved in the conversation?

Mr. C's Ties
//Skill 14.6//
Is tie color independent of that tie having stripes? (Use the picture below)
Independence -> P(A) = P(A|B)
IMG00056-20110208-1817.jpg



Friday February 11, 2011


Practice with Venn Diagrams and Tree Diagrams
Skills 14.2 - 14.6
75% of Superbowl watchers saw the Pug commercial, 70% saw the Finger Lick commercial and 55% saw both
  1. Dorito's Pug and Dorito's Finger Lick
    1. Pug
    2. Finger Lick



  1. 75% of Superbowl watchers saw the Pug commercial, 70% saw the Finger Lick commercial and 55% saw both
    1. <Venn or Tree> Probability that someone saw neither
    2. <Venn or Tree> Probability that a person saw Pug or Finger Lick
    3. <Venn or Tree> Probability that a randomly selected watcher saw exactly one of the commercials
      1. Can we use BOTH a Venn and a Tree? Same probability?
75% of Superbowl watchers saw the Pug commercial, 70% saw the Finger Lick commercial and 55% saw both
  1. <Venn or Tree>Probability that two randomly selected watchers, exactly one of them saw the Pug commercial
    1. Assume independence between selecting watchers
  2. <Venn or Tree>Probability that a randomly selected individual saw the Pug commercial given that they saw the Finger Lick commercial
  3. <Venn or Tree> Is seeing the Pug commercial independent of seeing the Finger Lick commercial?
Mr. C's Ties
IMG00056-20110208-1817.jpg
  1. Show picture of tie collection
  2. Develop one question/investigation for each Unit IV Skill
  3. Work with a partner - randomly assigned
  4. One laptop per partner
  5. Post your two best(favorite) ideas/questions/investigations in the Unit IV Skills Page


Thursday February 10, 2011

Assessment - you may use any and all resources available to you
Comparing distributions of quantitative data (Skill 5.6)
Describing a relationship between two variables (Most skills from Ch. 7, 8, 9)
Designing a randomized blocked experiment (Skill 13.3)
Determining the difference between an experiment and an observational study (Skills 13.1 and 13.2)

Wednesday February 9, 2011



Practice with Venn Diagrams and Tree Diagrams
Skills 14.2 - 14.6
  1. Dorito's Pug and Dorito's Finger Lick
    1. Pug
    2. Finger Lick
  2. 75% of Superbowl watchers saw the Pug commercial, 70% saw the Finger Lick commercial and 55% saw both
    1. <Venn or Tree> Probability that someone saw neither
    2. <Venn or Tree> Probability that a person saw Pug or Finger Lick
    3. <Venn or Tree> Probability that a randomly selected watcher saw exactly one of the commercials
      1. Can we use BOTH a Venn and a Tree? Same probability?
    4. <Venn or Tree>Probability that two randomly selected watchers, one of them saw the Pug commercial
    5. <Venn or Tree>Probability that a randomly selected individual saw the Pug commercial given that they saw the Finger Lick commercial
    6. <Venn or Tree> Is seeing the Pug commercial independent of seeing the Finger Lick commercial?
Mr. C's Ties
  1. Show picture of tie collection
  2. Develop one question/investigation for each Unit IV Skill
    1. May work with a partner
    2. One laptop per partner





Tuesday February 8, 2011

Access your drawings from yesterday in Google Documents
Review Independence
  1. On the tree diagrams for two cards drawn and rolling dice, label P(A), P(A|A), and P(A and A)
  2. For independent events: P(A|A) = P(A)
  3. For non-independent events: P(A|A) =/ P(A)
  4. In the Unit IV Discussion Forum, post a definition of independent OR non-independent events and provide an example of each.
Review Disjoint vs Non-Disjoint
  1. Use Venn Diagram constructed for Ace and Heart / Ace and Ten
  2. Disjoint - No overlap
  3. Non-Disjoint - Has overlap
  4. In the Unit IV Discussion Forum, post a definition of independent OR non-independent events and provide an example of each
Practice
  1. Dorito's Pug and Dorito's Finger Lick
    1. Pug
    2. Finger Lick
  2. 75% of Superbowl watchers saw the Pug commercial, 70% saw the Finger Lick commercial and 55% saw both
    1. <Venn or Tree> Probability that someone saw neither
    2. <Venn or Tree> Probability that a person saw Pug or Finger Lick
    3. <Venn or Tree> Probability that a randomly selected watcher saw exactly one of the commercials
    4. <Venn or Tree>Probability that two randomly selected watchers, one of them saw the Pug commercial
Time to Reflect


Monday February 7, 2011

Skill 14.5: Understand the concept of conditional probability as redefining the Who of concern, according to the information about the event that is given
Google Sketch - Tree Diagram for Notation
  1. Do your best to re-construct a tree diagram as a Sketch in Google Docs
    1. No Firefox? Use MS Paint. Not comfortable with Paint, use a piece of paper.
    2. Will be done on the board once all sketches are done
Skill 14.6: Understand the concept of independence
Tree Diagrams - Independent Events?
  1. Use Google Sketch, Paint, or Paper
  2. Build a tree diagram for the following scenarios..
    1. One two-card Texas Hold'Em hand dealt to you for the event that you get an Ace in your hand
    2. Rolling two dice - the event that you roll a 5
  3. Similarities and differences?
  4. Calculate probability for each branch
  5. In the Unit IV Discussion Forum, post a definition of independent OR non-independent events and provide an example of each.
Skill 14.2: Know the basic definitions and rules of probability
Disjoint Events vs Non-Disjoint Events
  1. Use Google Sketch, Paint, or Paper
  2. Construct TWO different Venn diagrams(labels and probabilities) for the following combinations of events...
    1. Being dealt an Ace AND a Heart
    2. Being dealt an Ace AND a Ten
  3. Definition of Disjoint Events
  4. In the Unit IV Discussion Forum, post a definition of independent OR non-independent events and provide an example of each
Homework: If you didn't get a chance to post a response in each discussion, please complete this for homework.



Friday February 4, 2011

Skill 14.5 Understand the concept of conditional probability as redefining the Who of concern,according to the information about the event that is given
14.6 Understand the concept of independence
Sheets of Paper
  1. Choose any subject that you've collected data on the number of sheets of paper you've received
  2. Determine the probability of receiving that many sheets of paper...see example on board
    1. The probability that we will receive "X" sheets of paper on one day in English class
  3. Construct the first level of a tree for a day - As a new "Drawing" in Google Docs
  4. Change the "Who" of concern - Given that you received no paper in English the day before, what is the probability that you will receive "X" sheets of paper today
  5. Construct the 2nd level of the tree - on same drawing
  6. If those probabilities change, then sheets of paper received one day are NOT independent of sheets of paper received the day before
Notation
  1. Create a separate drawing in Google Docs
  2. Label in the appropriate way



Thursday February 3, 2011

Check out the Unit IV Skills!
Quick assessment - Skills 14.1-14.4
  • May use class wiki, slideshows, all other resources
  • Anonymous
  • Gone over as a class
  • Once you are done, create a Google Doc to start thinking about/planning what you want to do for a Unit IV project.
Tree diagrams...multiply across and add down
A Mid-year assessment of sorts...when will we have it? <no need to study, just learn :)>
  1. Independence
  2. Comparing two distributions
  3. Describe a relationship between two variables
  4. Design an experiment that incorporates blocking


Tuesday February 1, 2011

1. Yesterday's Review
  • Slideshows
  • Addition Rule
  • Disjoint vs Non-Disjoint
2. Sample Spaces
  • Generate a sample space for all possible outcomes of randomly selecting two people (14.2, 14.4)
  • Create the sample space
  • Translate to a tree
3. Conditional Probability
  • P(A|B) = P(A "given" B)
  • Given someone is a moderate, what's the probability that they will be in favor of keeping the penny?

Homework: Think of one idea that would demonstrate that you know Skill 14.1, 14.2 and 14.3



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