Anyone want to use the Academy Awards for their project?

Friday February 25, 2011

Make sure you complete these 3 items
1. Reassessment
2. Probability Check-In - for those that need to complete it
3. Expected Value Investigation - Sum and Difference of Two Dice

1. Reassessment for those Reassessing
2. EVERYONE: Complete this today: Probability Check-In
3. Learn some more about Expected Value - Expected Value Applet
4. Create a probability distribution and calculate E(X), SD(X) <standard deviation> for the lottery ticket

Complete Reassessment Form if you plan on reassessing tomorrow
...define Expected Value and SD(X) using yesterday's activity

Using Excel

Finding in graphing calculator

Jackpot = $101,000,000
Create a probability distribution and calculate E(X), SD(X) <standard deviation> for the lottery ticket

Using Excel or Graphing Calculator

Interpret what they mean in context

Wednesday February 16, 2011

*Starting Dartboard Project* Skill 16.1: Probability models for a discrete random variable Skill 16.2: Find the mean and variance of a random variable Sheets of Paper - Expected Value
1. Access your data on sheets of paper received each day

Use a partner's if you do not have any data...even though you should

2. Create a probability model for # of sheets of paper - shown on board

Choose any one class

Round probability to the nearest hundredth

3. Simulating # of sheets of paper received on a given day - Microsoft Excel

Assign outcomes based on probabilities (1-100)

Look-up a random number to simulate a random outcome

VLOOKUP(RANDBETWEEN(1,100), CELLS YOU'RE LOOKING IN, VALUE YOU WANT)

Repeat

Calculate the average as we move along

AVERAGE(CELL TO THE LEFT AND ALL CELLS ABOVE)

4. Using the formula for E(X) - Formula Sheet

Tuesday February 15, 2011

Ch. 14 & 15 Practice

Monday February 14, 2011

Chatting Students Skill 14.5
Suppose at any given time in an AP Stat class there are 2, 3, or 4 or more students talking. 70% of the time there are 2 students talking, 20% of the time there are 3 students talking, with the remaining time being conversations of 4 or more students. If there are two students talking, there is an 80% chance that their conversation is actually about Statistics. If there are three students talking, there is a 65% chance that the conversation is about Statistics. If there are 4 or more students talking, there is a 35% chance that the conversation is about Statistics. If you hear from the hallway a conversation between students about statistics, what is the likelihood that there are 3 students involved in the conversation?

Mr. C's Ties //Skill 14.6//
Is tie color independent of that tie having stripes? (Use the picture below)
Independence -> P(A) = P(A|B)

Practice with Venn Diagrams and Tree Diagrams Skills 14.2 - 14.6 75% of Superbowl watchers saw the Pug commercial, 70% saw the Finger Lick commercial and 55% saw both

75% of Superbowl watchers saw the Pug commercial, 70% saw the Finger Lick commercial and 55% saw both

<Venn or Tree> Probability that someone saw neither

<Venn or Tree> Probability that a person saw Pug or Finger Lick

<Venn or Tree> Probability that a randomly selected watcher saw exactly one of the commercials

Can we use BOTH a Venn and a Tree? Same probability?

75% of Superbowl watchers saw the Pug commercial, 70% saw the Finger Lick commercial and 55% saw both

<Venn or Tree>Probability that two randomly selected watchers, exactly one of them saw the Pug commercial

Assume independence between selecting watchers

<Venn or Tree>Probability that a randomly selected individual saw the Pug commercial given that they saw the Finger Lick commercial

<Venn or Tree> Is seeing the Pug commercial independent of seeing the Finger Lick commercial?

Mr. C's Ties

Show picture of tie collection

Develop one question/investigation for each Unit IV Skill

Work with a partner - randomly assigned

One laptop per partner

Post your two best(favorite) ideas/questions/investigations in the Unit IV Skills Page

Thursday February 10, 2011

Assessment - you may use any and all resources available to you Comparing distributions of quantitative data (Skill 5.6) Describing a relationship between two variables (Most skills from Ch. 7, 8, 9) Designing a randomized blocked experiment (Skill 13.3) Determining the difference between an experiment and an observational study (Skills 13.1 and 13.2)

Wednesday February 9, 2011

Practice with Venn Diagrams and Tree Diagrams Skills 14.2 - 14.6

75% of Superbowl watchers saw the Pug commercial, 70% saw the Finger Lick commercial and 55% saw both

<Venn or Tree> Probability that someone saw neither

<Venn or Tree> Probability that a person saw Pug or Finger Lick

<Venn or Tree> Probability that a randomly selected watcher saw exactly one of the commercials

<Venn or Tree>Probability that two randomly selected watchers, one of them saw the Pug commercial

Time to Reflect

Monday February 7, 2011

Skill 14.5: Understand the concept of conditional probability as redefining the Who of concern, according to the information about the event that is given Google Sketch - Tree Diagram for Notation

Do your best to re-construct a tree diagram as a Sketch in Google Docs

No Firefox? Use MS Paint. Not comfortable with Paint, use a piece of paper.

Will be done on the board once all sketches are done

Skill 14.6: Understand the concept of independence Tree Diagrams - Independent Events?

Construct TWO different Venn diagrams(labels and probabilities) for the following combinations of events...

Being dealt an Ace AND a Heart

Being dealt an Ace AND a Ten

Definition of Disjoint Events

In the Unit IV Discussion Forum, post a definition of independent OR non-independent events and provide an example of each

Homework: If you didn't get a chance to post a response in each discussion, please complete this for homework.

Friday February 4, 2011

Skill 14.5 Understand the concept of conditional probability as redefining the Who of concern,according to the information about the event that is given 14.6 Understand the concept of independence Sheets of Paper

Choose any subject that you've collected data on the number of sheets of paper you've received

Determine the probability of receiving that many sheets of paper...see example on board

The probability that we will receive "X" sheets of paper on one day in English class

Construct the first level of a tree for a day - As a new "Drawing" in Google Docs

Change the "Who" of concern - Given that you received no paper in English the day before, what is the probability that you will receive "X" sheets of paper today

Construct the 2nd level of the tree - on same drawing

If those probabilities change, then sheets of paper received one day are NOT independent of sheets of paper received the day before

Posts In February, 2011Unit 4; ch 14-16

January << | >> March

## Table of Contents

## Monday February 28, 2011

1. Skill 16.4: Wrap-up: Expected Value Investigation - Sum and Difference of Two Dice- Summary Stats on Board
- Formula for Standard Deviation
- Not taking the square root = variance
- When adding OR subtracting INDEPENDENT random variables

2. Skill 17.3: Binomial Probability Distribution- True/False
- Odd/Even

3. Skill 17.2: Geometric Probability Distribution- Rolls Until Doubles

4. Unit IV Project Details## Friday February 25, 2011

Make sure you complete these 3 items1. Reassessment

2. Probability Check-In - for those that need to complete it

3. Expected Value Investigation - Sum and Difference of Two Dice

Once you have completed the 3 items above, then it's your option below...4. Choose a Wiki Page and make it awesome

5. Unit IV Project Creation

## Thursday February 24, 2011

Data Collection (for use in Unit V):Sampling Distributions18.1: Understand and interpret sampling distributions of means and proportions

1. Collect data on CEO salaries from the

2009 CEO Pay Database- "Randomly" sample CEOs and calculate the average salary
- Assume there are about 350 companies listed per letter of the alphabet

- As randomly as possible select samples of the sizes listed below
- Get
- Sample of size 2
- Sample of size 5
- Sample of size 10
- Sample of size 26 (One company from each letter of the alphabet)

- Compile responses via CEO Salary Form
- On Board: Values that are possible/not possible for each sample size
- Display each distribution in Fathom
- Observations about each distribution: shape, center, spread

2. Complete the Reassessment Form if you plan on reassessing tomorrow.at least2 samples of each size## Wednesday February 23, 2011

16.3: Know how to determine the new mean and standard deviation after adding a constant or multiplying by a constant

16.4: Know how to determine the new mean and standard deviation after adding/subtracting two(or more) independent random variables

1. Dart Lab

3. If you want to reassess on Friday: Reassessment Form

## Tuesday February 22, 2011

16.2: Know how to find the mean(expected value) and the variance of a random variable1. Dart Lab

- Working with group to answer questions on Dart Lab
- Round Probabilities to the nearest tenth
- Will conduct simulations tomorrow

2. Probability Check-In - Group #103. Class schedule

## Friday February 18, 2011

1. Reassessment for those Reassessing2.

EVERYONE:Complete this today: Probability Check-In3. Learn some more about Expected Value - Expected Value Applet

4. Create a probability distribution and calculate E(X), SD(X) <standard deviation> for the lottery ticket

- Using Excel or Graphing Calculator
- Interpret what they mean in context
- Jackpot = $101,000,000
Lottery Ticket.bmp

- Details
- Download
- 793 KB

5. Project Development- Unit IV Project## Thursday February 17, 2011

Complete Reassessment Form if you plan on reassessing tomorrow...define Expected Value and SD(X) using yesterday's activity

- Using Excel
- Finding in graphing calculator

Jackpot = $101,000,000Create a probability distribution and calculate E(X), SD(X) <standard deviation> for the lottery ticket

## Wednesday February 16, 2011

*Starting Dartboard Project*Skill 16.1: Probability models for a discrete random variableSkill 16.2: Find the mean and variance of a random variableSheets of Paper - Expected Value1. Access your data on sheets of paper received each day

- Use a partner's if you do not have any data...even though you should
- Complete Reassessment Form if you plan on reassessing on Friday

2. Create a probability model for # of sheets of paper - shown on board- Choose any one class
- Round probability to the nearest hundredth

3. Simulating # of sheets of paper received on a given day - Microsoft Excel4. Using the formula for E(X) - Formula Sheet

## Tuesday February 15, 2011

Ch. 14 & 15 Practice## Monday February 14, 2011

Chatting StudentsSkill 14.5Suppose at any given time in an AP Stat class there are 2, 3, or 4 or more students talking. 70% of the time there are 2 students talking, 20% of the time there are 3 students talking, with the remaining time being conversations of 4 or more students. If there are two students talking, there is an 80% chance that their conversation is actually about Statistics. If there are three students talking, there is a 65% chance that the conversation is about Statistics. If there are 4 or more students talking, there is a 35% chance that the conversation is about Statistics. If you hear from the hallway a conversation between students about statistics, what is the likelihood that there are 3 students involved in the conversation?

Mr. C's Ties//Skill 14.6//

Is tie color independent of that tie having stripes? (Use the picture below)

Independence -> P(A) = P(A|B)

## Friday February 11, 2011

Practice with Venn Diagrams and Tree DiagramsSkills 14.2 - 14.675% of Superbowl watchers saw the Pug commercial, 70% saw the Finger Lick commercial and 55% saw both

- 75% of Superbowl watchers saw the Pug commercial, 70% saw the Finger Lick commercial and 55% saw both
- <Venn or Tree> Probability that someone saw neither
- <Venn or Tree> Probability that a person saw Pug or Finger Lick
- <Venn or Tree> Probability that a randomly selected watcher saw exactly one of the commercials
- Can we use BOTH a Venn and a Tree? Same probability?

75% of Superbowl watchers saw the Pug commercial, 70% saw the Finger Lick commercial and 55% saw bothMr. C's Ties## Thursday February 10, 2011

Assessment - you may use any and all resources available to youComparing distributions of quantitative data (Skill 5.6)

Describing a relationship between two variables (Most skills from Ch. 7, 8, 9)

Designing a randomized blocked experiment (Skill 13.3)

Determining the difference between an experiment and an observational study (Skills 13.1 and 13.2)

## Wednesday February 9, 2011

Practice with Venn Diagrams and Tree DiagramsSkills 14.2 - 14.6Mr. C's Ties## Tuesday February 8, 2011

Access your drawings from yesterday in Google DocumentsReview IndependenceReview Disjoint vs Non-DisjointPractice- Dorito's Pug and Dorito's Finger Lick
- Pug
- Finger Lick

- 75% of Superbowl watchers saw the Pug commercial, 70% saw the Finger Lick commercial and 55% saw both
- <Venn or Tree> Probability that someone saw neither
- <Venn or Tree> Probability that a person saw Pug or Finger Lick
- <Venn or Tree> Probability that a randomly selected watcher saw exactly one of the commercials
- <Venn or Tree>Probability that two randomly selected watchers, one of them saw the Pug commercial

Time to Reflect## Monday February 7, 2011

Skill 14.5: Understand the concept of conditional probability as redefining the Who of concern, according to the information about the event that is givenGoogle Sketch - Tree Diagram for NotationSkill 14.6: Understand the concept of independenceTree Diagrams - Independent Events?Skill 14.2: Know the basic definitions and rules of probabilityDisjoint Events vs Non-Disjoint EventsHomework: If you didn't get a chance to post a response in each discussion, please complete this for homework.## Friday February 4, 2011

Skill 14.5 Understand the concept of conditional probability as redefining the Who of concern,according to the information about the event that is given14.6 Understand the concept of independenceSheets of PaperNotation## Thursday February 3, 2011

Check out the Unit IV Skills!Quick assessment - Skills 14.1-14.4

- May use class wiki, slideshows, all other resources
- Anonymous
- Gone over as a class
- Once you are done, create a Google Doc to start thinking about/planning what you want to do for a Unit IV project.

Tree diagrams...multiply across and add downA Mid-year assessment of sorts...when will we have it? <no need to study, just learn :)>

## Tuesday February 1, 2011

1. Yesterday's Review- Slideshows
- Addition Rule
- Disjoint vs Non-Disjoint

2. Sample Spaces- Generate a sample space for all possible outcomes of randomly selecting two people (14.2, 14.4)
- Create the sample space
- Translate to a tree

3. Conditional ProbabilityHomework: Think of one idea that would demonstrate that you know Skill 14.1, 14.2 and 14.3January << | >> March

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